Today we have war updates... patience and caution are needed as we focus on recent headlines. From inflation data and Fed commentary to geopolitical tensions and a temporary ceasefire, there has been surprisingly little lasting impact on markets. Underlying market weakness existed before the war and the conflict has mainly reshuffled sector performance leaving markets stuck in a fragile, uncertain range. While some areas like energy, materials, and staples showed prior strength, others such as software and parts of financials remain weak. Conflicting signals from interest rates, the dollar, and inflation expectations, along with continued volatility driven by political narratives rather than fundamentals, make it difficult to form a high-conviction outlook. Today we discuss...
- Markets largely ignored major news on inflation, Fed policy, and geopolitics, suggesting underlying uncertainty and indecision.
- The market was already weakening before the war, meaning the conflict mainly shifted trends rather than creating new ones.
- Current price action reflects a choppy trading range with no clear directional trend emerging.
- Software and parts of technology remain notably weak, even compared to pre-war levels.
- Semiconductor stocks have held up better, creating divergence within the tech sector.
- Financials are showing signs of stress, partly due to concerns around private credit and hidden risks.
- Lack of transparency in financial system exposures poses a greater risk than the size of the problem itself.
- The yield curve is flattening, reducing profitability for banks and signaling potential economic pressure.
- Interest rates, the dollar, and inflation expectations are sending mixed and unreliable signals.
- Oil price dynamics and futures markets suggest expectations of declining prices despite short-term spikes.
- Inflation impacts from higher energy costs may not be fully felt for several months.
- Geopolitical developments, particularly involving Trump’s negotiation style, add unpredictability to market behavior.
- Sitting in cash is a valid strategy in uncertain environments despite inflation concerns.
- Missing small upside moves is preferable to being exposed to sudden market drawdowns.
- Elevated valuations and lingering macro risks suggest markets may not be as stable as they appear.
- Relief rallies can occur even while underlying economic and market stress persists.
- There are currently very few high-conviction investment opportunities across markets.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Co-Host: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of "first do no harm". This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
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Co-Host: Doug Heagren
Meet Douglas Heagren, a devoted husband and father of two, whose personal journey has fueled his passion for helping families navigate the complexities of college planning. Growing up, Douglas faced adversity early on when his father passed away, leaving him to care for his younger sister through college. Witnessing firsthand the financial struggles and challenges of college planning, Douglas became acutely aware of the importance of effective preparation and support.
Motivated by his own experiences, Douglas embarked on a mission to make the college planning process more manageable for families. With over 15 years of experience in the industry, Douglas has honed his expertise and developed a deep understanding of the challenges families face when sending their children to college.
Driven by a desire to make a meaningful difference, Douglas made the decision to focus his practice solely on addressing the unique needs and concerns of families navigating the college journey. Through his dedication, empathy, and unwavering commitment, Douglas strives to empower families to overcome obstacles, secure financial aid, and pave the way for their children's success in higher education.
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