Today we're here to share some war investing wisdom with you as we deal with an unusually volatile and fragmented market environment. Distinct “market paradigms” have rapidly rotated month-to-month, creating confusion for investors as sectors behave inconsistently. Despite a strong earnings week and resilient equities, underlying concerns are building, including rising interest rates, surging energy costs, and early signs of economic slowdown that could pressure consumers and corporate margins over time. There is a growing disconnect between market performance and economic reality, warning of potential earnings compression as higher costs and weakening demand squeeze companies. Remain cautious and selective, as the market is difficult to handicap. Right now, patience may be the most prudent strategy. Today we discuss...
- Markets are behaving unusually in 2026, driven more by sentiment and geopolitical events than consistent trends.
- War has disrupted typical market patterns, yet equities have rebounded back to all-time highs.
- Distinct “pre-war, war, and post-war” paradigms have created sharp, month-to-month sector rotations.
- Tech and semiconductors have led the recent rally, despite broader inconsistency across sectors.
- A major earnings week showed mixed results, with strong performance overall but clear winners and losers.
- Economic data signals a slowing economy, though not yet strong enough to confirm a recession.
- Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions are increasing inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.
- Consumers are beginning to feel pressure from higher costs, especially energy, which could impact spending.
- A “margin squeeze” risk is emerging as companies face rising costs and slowing revenue growth.
- Markets remain resilient despite weakening underlying fundamentals, creating a growing disconnect.
- Big Tech continues to generate strong cash flow but faces uncertainty due to heavy AI-related capital spending.
- Emerging markets and rate-sensitive sectors face elevated risks in the current environment.
- Corporate earnings quality may deteriorate through lowered expectations or financial adjustments.
- Housing and consumer data remain weak, signaling underlying fragility in the economy.
- The biggest forward risk to markets is earnings compression rather than inflation or the war itself.
- Seasonality and historical patterns suggest potential weakness in the coming months.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Co-Host: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of "first do no harm". This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
Kirk's Online Presence:
Co-Host: Doug Heagren
Meet Douglas Heagren, a devoted husband and father of two, whose personal journey has fueled his passion for helping families navigate the complexities of college planning. Growing up, Douglas faced adversity early on when his father passed away, leaving him to care for his younger sister through college. Witnessing firsthand the financial struggles and challenges of college planning, Douglas became acutely aware of the importance of effective preparation and support.
Motivated by his own experiences, Douglas embarked on a mission to make the college planning process more manageable for families. With over 15 years of experience in the industry, Douglas has honed his expertise and developed a deep understanding of the challenges families face when sending their children to college.
Driven by a desire to make a meaningful difference, Douglas made the decision to focus his practice solely on addressing the unique needs and concerns of families navigating the college journey. Through his dedication, empathy, and unwavering commitment, Douglas strives to empower families to overcome obstacles, secure financial aid, and pave the way for their children's success in higher education.
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