The market is changing and today we are talking about the growing risks and shifting dynamics as Wall Street returns from the summer and investors face higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and expensive valuations. We examine why strong economic data can actually be bad news for stocks if it reduces the need for Fed rate cuts and we also discuss the changing role of bonds in diversified portfolios, the importance of sequence-of-returns risk for retirees, the difficulty of comparing investment performance to the S&P 500 during an unusual year, and why investors should focus on the investing fundamentals. We review trends across commodities, gold, Bitcoin, oil, small caps, technology, and the S&P 500, while making sure you remember to proceed with caution heading into historically weaker months. Today we discuss...
- Why an expensive market does not necessarily mean investors should stay out, especially after decades of elevated valuations.
- How investor ego can lead to poor decisions, including repeatedly buying declining stocks simply because they appear cheaper.
- Why valuation must be considered relative to a company’s expected growth rather than viewed as a standalone P/E ratio.
- Higher inflation and interest rates are major risks that could eventually pressure stock valuations and economic growth.
- How rising interest rates can hurt long-term bonds, utilities, housing, highly leveraged companies, and businesses dependent on borrowing to grow.
- Why investors should pay closer attention to commodities as inflation and geopolitical disruptions affect prices.
- How stronger-than-expected employment data could be bad news for markets because it may reduce the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates.
- We examined the unusually long drawdown in the bond market and why traditional stock-and-bond diversification has not worked as well since the pandemic.
- Bonds should serve a specific purpose in a portfolio, such as income, liquidity, liability matching, or near-term spending needs.
- The market’s unusual performance this year, including the outsized influence of semiconductor and technology stocks on overall index returns.
- The dangers of relying on financial media and developing an independent investment view based on facts, fundamentals, and personal research.
- A warning against shorting the overall market and a reminder that there are other ways to manage portfolio risk and hedge against downturns.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Co-Host: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of "first do no harm". This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
Kirk's Online Presence:
Co-Host: Doug Heagren
Meet Douglas Heagren, a devoted husband and father of two, whose personal journey has fueled his passion for helping families navigate the complexities of college planning. Growing up, Douglas faced adversity early on when his father passed away, leaving him to care for his younger sister through college. Witnessing firsthand the financial struggles and challenges of college planning, Douglas became acutely aware of the importance of effective preparation and support.
Motivated by his own experiences, Douglas embarked on a mission to make the college planning process more manageable for families. With over 15 years of experience in the industry, Douglas has honed his expertise and developed a deep understanding of the challenges families face when sending their children to college.
Driven by a desire to make a meaningful difference, Douglas made the decision to focus his practice solely on addressing the unique needs and concerns of families navigating the college journey. Through his dedication, empathy, and unwavering commitment, Douglas strives to empower families to overcome obstacles, secure financial aid, and pave the way for their children's success in higher education.
Doug's Online Presence: