Right now, you should invest in anything but the S&P 500... Today we talk about what you should invest in instead. We focus was on market dynamics, particularly the strong performance of precious metals like gold and silver, the technical risks of recent market breakouts, and the caution needed after periods of rapid gains. We examine broader market trends, highlighting the relatively stronger performance of European and emerging market stocks versus the U.S., the importance of diversification, and more. Today we discuss...
- Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have been performing strongly, but recent market breakouts are showing signs of weakness, signaling caution for over-leveraged investors.
- September was a high-gain month, leading many investors to become overextended, with earnings season potentially introducing volatility.
- The precise reasons for gold’s rise are unclear, though factors like central bank purchases and possible stablecoin-backed demand may contribute.
- Gold acts as a fear indicator rather than a production-based asset, with rising prices reflecting concerns over fiat currency and economic uncertainty.
- Historical comparisons show current gold-to-oil ratios are anomalous, echoing aspects of the 1970s stagflation period while oil prices remain low.
- U.S. stock market gains are outpaced by European and emerging markets this year, emphasizing the importance of global diversification.
- Average S&P 500 returns differ from actual realized returns due to volatility and sequence-of-returns risk, affecting long-term retirement planning.
- Electricity prices have surged in most U.S. states, highlighting structural energy supply challenges and rising costs for consumers.
- AI expansion is creating unprecedented energy demand, potentially driving electricity prices higher and stressing grid capacity.
- Nuclear energy development is critical to meet growing energy needs, yet decades of poor policy and infrastructure deficiencies hinder progress.
- Media narratives on energy and investment trends can be manipulated, requiring investors to critically evaluate information.
- Historical tech and AI boom comparisons suggest caution, as overhyped markets with high valuations may lead to significant losses.
- Investors should manage risk carefully, use first-principles thinking, and avoid greed-driven overexposure to emerging trends like AI.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Today's Guest: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of “first do no harm”. This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
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Today's Panelists
- Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
- Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners