Today we talk gold's false start and the housing market fall as we focus on growing risks and uncertainty in the markets. The Fed takes a more hawkish stance on inflation, signaling that interest rates could stay higher for longer while offering little guidance on future policy. We cover the impact of the recent U.S.-Canada tariffs, rising Treasury yields, the $40 trillion national debt, housing-market weakness, rising foreclosures, and the potential risks facing commercial real estate and regional banks. We also examine the current going ons of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as recent gains could be a false start. As always, emphasize caution, diversification, and maintain a long-term perspective rather than reacting to short-term market moves. Today we discuss...
- The Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation is raising expectations for higher interest rates and a longer period of restrictive monetary policy.
- The escalating U.S.-Canada tariff dispute is creating additional economic uncertainty and increasing concerns about inflation and slower growth.
- Treasury yields and government debt remain major concerns as the U.S. national debt surpasses $40 trillion and interest costs continue to climb.
- The housing market is showing signs of weakness, including elevated inventory, declining new-home sales, rising foreclosures, and worsening affordability.
- Higher mortgage rates and insurance costs are making it increasingly difficult for homeowners to access liquidity from their real estate holdings.
- Commercial real estate faces significant refinancing risks as more than $1 trillion in debt is scheduled to mature while borrowing costs remain elevated.
- Weakening employment data and downward revisions to job growth suggest the labor market may be slowing more than headline figures indicate.
- Gold, silver, and Bitcoin have performed strongly recently, but the hosts believe investors should remain cautious about chasing the rally.
- Historical data shows that midterm election years have frequently experienced significant market drawdowns after August.
- Market timing requires making two decisions, when to sell and when to buy back, and both are difficult to get right.
- Global markets have produced widely different returns, reinforcing the potential benefits of looking beyond the S&P 500 for diversification.
- Hot money has been rotating between Bitcoin, precious metals, industrials, energy, and semiconductors throughout the year rather than staying concentrated in one asset.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Co-Host: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of "first do no harm". This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
Kirk's Online Presence:
Co-Host: Doug Heagren
Meet Douglas Heagren, a devoted husband and father of two, whose personal journey has fueled his passion for helping families navigate the complexities of college planning. Growing up, Douglas faced adversity early on when his father passed away, leaving him to care for his younger sister through college. Witnessing firsthand the financial struggles and challenges of college planning, Douglas became acutely aware of the importance of effective preparation and support.
Motivated by his own experiences, Douglas embarked on a mission to make the college planning process more manageable for families. With over 15 years of experience in the industry, Douglas has honed his expertise and developed a deep understanding of the challenges families face when sending their children to college.
Driven by a desire to make a meaningful difference, Douglas made the decision to focus his practice solely on addressing the unique needs and concerns of families navigating the college journey. Through his dedication, empathy, and unwavering commitment, Douglas strives to empower families to overcome obstacles, secure financial aid, and pave the way for their children's success in higher education.
Doug's Online Presence: