There is a 90% chance for a rate hike... Today we cover growing economic and market risks, as we hone in on AI, inflation, interest rates, housing, and government spending. There is increasingly negative messaging from major AI companies, arguing that calls for regulation may reflect slowing AI growth and a desire to limit competition rather than purely concern for public safety, while warning that a slowdown in AI investment could expose an already stagnant economy and increase recession risks. We also talk the rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, higher Treasury yields, and weakening housing affordability. We review seasonal market weakness in September and October, stock issuance as a potential warning sign of corporate stress, and why investors should remain cautious and reduce risk amid increasing volatility and uncertainty. Today we discuss...
- College planning and how scholarships can dramatically reduce the actual cost of expensive liberal arts colleges.
- The changing narrative around AI and whether growing calls for AI regulation are partly driven by major companies trying to limit competition.
- Whether AI development is beginning to plateau after several years of rapid growth and what that could mean for the economy and markets.
- Slowing AI investment could expose underlying economic weakness and potentially contribute to stagnation or recession.
- Rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes as inflation and employment data point toward a more challenging economic environment.
- Higher interest rates and Treasury yields could put additional pressure on an already stretched housing market.
- How housing affordability has deteriorated dramatically for younger Americans and why falling home prices could ultimately be beneficial for buyers.
- Why mortgage rates are influenced more directly by Treasury yields and the broader yield curve than by the Fed’s policy rate alone.
- How the traditional 60/40 portfolio has become less effective as stocks and bonds have increasingly moved together.
- Why rising interest rates can make short-term fixed income more attractive while creating risks for investors holding longer-term bonds.
- How everyday necessities such as groceries, shelter, insurance, fuel, and coffee have risen sharply in price despite headline inflation appearing much lower.
- Rising gas prices and their potential political consequences heading into the midterm elections.
- Increased corporate stock issuance as a potential warning sign that companies may be relying on equity financing rather than debt to raise capital.
"Cash is not trash... Cash is King" - Kirk Chisholm
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Co-Host: Kirk Chisholm
Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group, an independent Registered Investment Advisor located in Lexington, MA. He has been providing wealth management services to individuals, executives, entrepreneurs, and their families since 1999. He is an outside the box thinker, risk manager, inflation expert, blogger, podcaster, and all-around interesting guy. Kirk is dedicated to developing lasting relationships with all of his clients and their families. One of the benefits of working with Kirk is his patience, empathy, and his ability to provide clear and easy-to-understand explanations to complex financial topics.
Kirk developed a unique philosophy for the wealth management industry called Risk Management First. The medical field has a similar way of thinking of "first do no harm". This philosophy focuses on risk management for clients in all aspects of their lives in ways the industry does not address. Risk management does not stop with investments. It also requires working closely with other professionals to address areas of their financial lives not currently being met.
In 2008, Kirk co-founded Innovative Advisory Group to address the needs not being addressed by the wealth management industry. It started with specializing in alternative assets held in retirement accounts (i.e. self directed IRAs/401ks). Then the company expanded into the specialization of college funding (i.e. planning, strategy, and paying the least possible for a high quality education), Risk Management First, exit planning for business owners, advanced planning (estate, tax, etc), and providing practice management and leadership training to other financial advisors, accountants and attorneys.
Kirk's Online Presence:
Co-Host: Doug Heagren
Meet Douglas Heagren, a devoted husband and father of two, whose personal journey has fueled his passion for helping families navigate the complexities of college planning. Growing up, Douglas faced adversity early on when his father passed away, leaving him to care for his younger sister through college. Witnessing firsthand the financial struggles and challenges of college planning, Douglas became acutely aware of the importance of effective preparation and support.
Motivated by his own experiences, Douglas embarked on a mission to make the college planning process more manageable for families. With over 15 years of experience in the industry, Douglas has honed his expertise and developed a deep understanding of the challenges families face when sending their children to college.
Driven by a desire to make a meaningful difference, Douglas made the decision to focus his practice solely on addressing the unique needs and concerns of families navigating the college journey. Through his dedication, empathy, and unwavering commitment, Douglas strives to empower families to overcome obstacles, secure financial aid, and pave the way for their children's success in higher education.
Doug's Online Presence: