This is a big move in this shiny asset! While everything else in the market is seeing big changes, gold is not different. We are also in earnings season, and major companies' reports can influence markets. Business uncertainty, especially around tariffs, has caused a dramatic slowdown in corporate spending. Forecasting has become very difficult, but there are signs of a potential recession, yet it's still important to avoid echo chambers when forming investment views. Today we discuss...

• Inflation has significantly raised prices at restaurants between 2020 and 2025, with breakfast items like IHOP pancakes seeing an 82% price increase.
• Companies are cautious during the current earnings season, often dampening future expectations due to economic uncertainty and tariffs.
• A North American manager reported that customer spending and shipping orders have frozen up worse than during COVID, threatening layoffs.
• People seek confirmation of their beliefs and the danger of echo chambers in investing and life.
• Successful investors should seek out contradictory evidence rather than self-confirming narratives.
• Value stocks like McDonald’s and Coca-Cola have been resilient and largely unaffected by tariffs.
• Investors should examine their ETFs' holdings and individual stock performance closely.
• Many mega-cap tech stocks have struggled despite strong revenue growth since 2021.
• A new generation of investors is facing real market pullbacks for the first time, leading to potential emotional decision-making.
• Risk is always present in markets, regardless of "risk on" or "risk off" environments.
• Diversification and proper risk management should be done before volatility hits, not after.
• Technology stocks are especially vulnerable to liquidity tightening and reduced spending.
• Global liquidity is showing signs of increasing outside the U.S., helping international markets outperform.
• Recessions, though painful, are necessary for economic health and market resets.
• Gold has been very strong recently, staying above its 200-day moving average.
• The gold-to-silver ratio is historically high, suggesting silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold.
• Proper ratio trades remove general market movement risk but require strong discipline and understanding.